Donors still concerned
The shock waves of last week's presidential debate are still reverberating, as President Biden and his allies Addressing the concerns of frustrated Democrats and wealthy donors about his age and suitability for the post.
Donors think Biden will remain the Democratic nominee despite his poor showing. But few in the party and the markets expect Donald Trump to win in November.
Here is the latest outcome of this debate. According to one survey, 72 percent of registered voters do not believe Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president. CBS News The survey published Sunday found that percentage was 65 percent, up from 66 percent in early June.
As Trump's chances of victory grow after the debate, Wall Street analysts are reevaluating what the outcome might be What this means for the economy and marketsTheir forecasts include a slowdown in growth and a resurgence in inflation, which could disrupt the Fed's interest rate policy, especially if Trump implements his proposals for mass deportations of illegal immigrants and high tariffs.
Some attendees at a recent fundraiser hosted by Biden attempted damage control. “I just saw President Biden. Rest assured, everybody, he was on his game,” said Democratic donor Michael Kempner. Posted on Instagram The incident occurred after an event hosted by hedge fund tycoon Barry Rosenstein in the Hamptons that also included Loews CEO Jonathan Tisch and radio host Howard Stern.
Biden also said attended a fundraiser The event, hosted by New Jersey Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, raised $3.7 million.
Not everyone who watched Biden closely appeared relieved. Anthony ScaramucciThe investor and one-time Trump communications director, who attended the Hamptons event, posted on X that while Biden “did quite well reading the teleprompter and meeting people,” “it will not be enough to prove to the American people that he is fit to stay in office for another 4 years.”
What will donors do? Many told DealBook they would continue to support Biden, and that they believed he would not give up the election. (However, some, like personal injury attorney John Morgan, Biden's aides accused by name (for Thursday's debate)
Others hope the Wall Street money will run out. Investor Whitney Tilson X posted that he would “fight to my last breath to stop Trump and his toxic Trumpism,” but that Biden needed to prove that his performance in the debate was an exception. If he doesn't do that, “supporting him will be a waste of my time and money because he has virtually no chance of beating Trump.”
How much will Wall Street's money matter? a Biden campaign official announced the It was reported Sunday that $26 million of the $33 million raised since the debate came from small donors. That may fit into the campaign's effort to portray the election as Main Street versus Wall Street. Officials may also be quietly betting that donors' intransigence is a momentary panic or a bluff.
But as Trump's fundraising grows, including from wealthy donors, the loss of any major funding source matters.
Keep one thing in mind: A call with Jen O'Malley Dillon, campaign chair for Biden's national finance committee. The discussion, scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Eastern time, could be crucial to calming nerves and keeping supporters on board.
See what's happening here
The European Union imposed a vote of no confidence on Meta. The bloc's competition promoters said the technology giant's “Pay or Agree” Data Policywhich allows Instagram and Facebook users to pay for ad-free versions of the social network, violated its Digital Markets Act. Last week, the EU brought a similar case against Apple as it expands its crackdown on Big Tech.
European stock markets and the euro rose after preliminary French election results. Although Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally First round of French parliamentary elections Exit polling on Sunday suggested it would fall short of an absolute majority. That could help avert a situation that analysts say could destabilise the eurozone's second-largest economy.
States differ on how to monitor gun purchases. Starting Monday, California will require credit card networks including Visa and MasterCard to make credit card information available to banks. Exclusive retailer codes to better track firearm sales. But new laws in Georgia and Tennessee do the oppositeThese two contradictory approaches have further complicated efforts to crack down on illegal gun sales, following an announcement made a week ago by US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy. Gun violence a national health crisis,
Disney claims its first billion-dollar movie will be released in 2024. “Inside Out 2” becomes the studio's first title since “Barbie” cross the 10 point barrier. It represents some measure of validation for Disney, which had faced criticism about its box-office performance from activist investor Nelson Peltz. (In less positive news, Kevin Costner's $130 million film “Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1” was on pace to gross $150 million. Total earnings just $11 million,
The Supreme Court's “revolution” on regulation
It's been a few good weeks for conservatives and business groups challenging the powers of the federal government in the Supreme Court.
A series of decisions have weakened the power of the executive branch, culminating in a decision to overturn the so-called Chevron Doctrine, which could fundamentally change the way federal agencies regulate the industry.
The judges overturned Reagan-era precedent that rested on thousands of regulations. The Supreme Court's 1984 decision in a dispute over Chevron and the Clean Air Act gave agencies latitude to interpret ambiguously written laws.
But critics have long argued that it places too much power in the hands of the executive.
The Supreme Court agreed. On Friday, in a 6-3 majority decision along ideological lines, the judges said Reflexed chevron and handed authority back to Congress and the courts. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote, “Courts must exercise their independent judgment in determining whether an agency has acted within its statutory authority.”
This decision is the latest by the Supreme Court to weaken the regulators. Only in recent weeks have judges cracked down on Authority of the SEC There are also calls for using an in-house tribunal to adjudicate fraud cases, repealing an EPA rule to control pollution, and reinstating the Biden administration's Virus mandates For large employers.
But Chevron's decision may have the biggest impact. This decision may give a boost to new initiatives Challenging the rules Rules and regulations issued by the EPA, labor agencies, the FDA, the Treasury, and the IRS change the way presidents and Congress make policy.
Corporate lobbyists are already preparing for the Chevron decisionThe Washington Post Reports“This means agencies will find it harder to defend their legal positions,” Daryl Josepher, executive vice president and chief counsel of the US Chamber of Commerce, told the Post. “This means it will be easier to challenge some regulations than before.”
Some might even say move aheadHe argued that the US Constitution does not give Congress the power to in any way … Any Use your legislative powers.
Conservative courts may be emboldened. Noah Feldmana Harvard Law professor and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says it's notable that Roberts wrote this opinion. He says it signals a “pivotal moment” in the conservative legal movement as the Supreme Court has shifted to the right.
“Chevron was a doctrine that was started by Supreme Court justices four decades ago,” he said. “It's now dead at the hands of very different justices. That's what revolutions are like.”
Boeing had a busy weekend of deal-making
Boeing has agreed Reunification with Spirit AeroSystemssupplier with which it severed ties nearly two decades ago. The $4.7 billion deal comes at a time when federal officials have made an offer to Boeing Settlement proposals This would avoid criminal prosecution on charges of fraud related to the plane crashes in 2018 and 2019.
The Spirit deal is Boeing's latest attempt to convince regulators and investors that it has a plan for a turnaround. It reverses Boeing's decades-old effort to use independent component makers to reduce costs. Spirit, which was spun off during that period, now makes parts for Airbus and Lockheed Martin as well as its former parent company.
Quality control concerns Boeing has been plagued by problems for years, most notably after crashes in 2018 and 2019 and a door panel that ripped off an Alaska Airlines flight in January. (Spirit made the affected panel on the Alaska Airlines flight, though Boeing was responsible for installing the part.) Its shares have fallen about 30% since January.
Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said that by reintegrating Spirit his company could “perfectly align” production and safety systems under a single workforce.
Boeing is also considering a settlement offer from the Justice Department. Under the terms of the proposal, the company would pay a $244 million fine, promise to reinvest in safety improvements and agree to external monitoring for three years.
However, the families of those killed in the accidents of 2018 and 2019 are objecting to this. Paul Cassel, the attorney representing them, called the offer a “sweetheart plea deal” because it would not force Boeing to admit fault.
The week ahead
This week, the focus will be on elections, central bank and employment data. Here's what to watch.
Tuesday: Fed Chairman Jay Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde are attending the meeting. Ready to speak at the annual central bankers forum in Sintra, Portugal. His views on inflation and growth will likely be the focus of attention. Meanwhile, Tesla hopefully The company has reported its latest quarterly delivery figures, which is a key insight into the state of the electric vehicle sector.
Wednesday: Minutes from the Fed's June policy meeting are set for publication, as investors ponder whether the central bank will cut interest rates before Election Day.
Thursday: Voters in Britain are heading to polling stations for a general election that could end the Conservative Party's 14-year rule. In the US, markets are closed for Independence Day.
Friday: after last friday Slow inflation reportWall Street expects a similar slowdown in the labor market. Here's the June jobs report To show the forecast Employers added 190,000 jobs, down from 272,000 in May, and wage growth slowed.
Speed Read
deal
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BlackRock agrees to buy market data provider Acquisition of Preqin for $3.2 billionIt's another bet on the boom in private capital markets. (Reuters)
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“Wall Street Law Firms Poaching frenzy.like the NBA” (NYT)
Elections, politics, and policy
Best among the rest
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by Robert Kraft donated 1 million dollars He enrolled at Yeshiva University after Columbia withdrew its support following months of protests at his school over the Israel-Gaza war. (Business Insider)
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“Behind Davos, Toxic Workplace Claims” (WSJ)
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